The Miami Beach Brokers® Updates | March 3rd 2023
February was a very busy month and there have been a lot of developments in my real estate business and in the real estate industry at large.
There was, for lack of a better term, a rally in everything real estate this month as developers, builders, etc, I guess they needed to rally but I am at a loss with respect to their optimism. Some big names in the industry even went so far as to pivot on their doom-and-gloom assessments of the market late last year. Clearly, the numbers of the prior week sparked a negative reaction and we saw a sell-off everywhere and are back to expecting a crash even after a two-day rally ending this week (I was trading futures and did well this week 🙂 )
It is certainly a confusing time to be looking at the real estate markets. Even with the knowledge of all real estate markets being “hyper-local”, when you have Zillow at odds with much of the industry (according to Fortune Magazine): and Yahoo publishing “2023’s Housing Correction Could Be The Worst Since Post-WWII“, it is clear to see that you have bullish and bearish scenarios.
I, however, am bearish on many overhyped real estate markets throughout the United States, especially places like Austin TX, San Francisco CA, Boise ID, and New York City NY, but remain neutral in the near term, to bullish in the long-term, on the Florida Real Estate Markets. While there has certainly been softening in demand, I have seen this cycle before and Sellers have gotten way ahead of themselves, particularly in Miami-Dade County where we are currently experiencing a housing crisis. Furthermore, I want to make it clear that just because you might see “price reductions”, average purchase prices continue to climb in Miami-Dade; Sellers are just starting to get the memo, although, I have seen a number of circumstances where multiple offer scenarios transpired and listing pricing increased. I posted a response to this article on LinkedIn yesterday (Friday, February 24th) in response to this article:
“Every little bit counts! Especially when it comes to a 30-year #mortgage. #housing costs have skyrocketed over the past 3 years and many people cannot afford to live in their own city anymore, let alone their own neighborhoods. The #housingmarket in #miami has been especially tight. With a Median Household Income of $57,815 and an average sales price of $470,000 (and a median list price of $566,900), Miamians literally need to shelter in-place for the foreseeable future, which is why we still have very low #housinginventory. Even as domestic demand cools from higher prices, there has been a record amount of #foreigndirectinvestment into the #miamirealestate market with the average purchase by a foreign national being $500,000 and over 60% of these transactions have been in #cash. This has continued to buoy the #realestate market for most of #southeastflorida and not just the popular #realestatemarket of #miamibeach or that of the City Of Miami.
Last week I put out a YouTube video discussing the #2023 outlook & #future possibilities of the #miamidadecounty real estate market and, barring a natural disaster, it is highly unlikely that this market will experience the much-hyped “Housing Crash” many pundits are telling everyone to brace for. What is more likely is the continuation and worsening of the #housingcrisis we have here and it will be years before #affordablehousing and #workforcehousing initiatives begin to markedly alleviate the pain and that is only assuming a hell of a lot more #funding goes into existing programs, & new programs incentivizing #developement in both the Affordable & Workforce Housing space.”
— Christopher J. Lazaro, Florida Licensed Real Estate Broker Associate & Mortgage Loan Originator
The bottom line is that there is a good chance that another wave of inflation is coming as foreign direct investment pours into the country. Basically, we have printed a huge amount of Dollars, sent those dollars abroad (exported them), and now those dollars are coming back despite the dollar being strong. Most other economies are weak or even collapsing, so it (the Dollar) is considered a “safe haven”. In addition, because other nations’ currencies are on the skids, foreign nationals are buying up assets seeing that these assets are both denominated in dollars and produce dollars (from rents). There is also sort of a double whammy here. Assuming the Dollar falls, even more, international money will pour in to scoop up American assets at a discount, not to mention, a depreciating dollar makes everything more expensive as well. So if demand, scarcity, logistics problems (supply chain), & war are not going to boost inflation, a depreciation in the dollar certainly will, especially as the supply of dollars domestically increases with increasing foreign purchases.
I am not an economist, but after reading, listening to, and watching a lot of qualified, successful, “smart” people talk about this over the last few years, and then taking that information and hashing it against my own expertise in a few areas, this is my somewhat informed opinion. This past week we saw something that really made me worry, Intel cut its dividend AND there is a high likelihood that other Blue Chip companies (and non-blue-chip companies) will do the same. This means corporate earnings are feeling the pain and I do not believe for a second that we are through the worst of what some pundits have been calling for, in some cases years (Peter Schiff).
Therefore, I am recommending everyone who can get into hard assets…now is a GREAT time to start looking to buy a home or investment property, but you must buy it RIGHT. Do NOT be afraid to “lowball” in this crazy market!
There is a great deal of overpriced garbage on the market right now, and I am referring to garbage, not overpriced midrange or luxury properties (and there are and will be some opportunities in this space too). I saw a fire-damaged shell of a 1/1 duplex, in a fringe area (at best), built in the 1940s this week on a 4,000 sqft lot (that’s a very tiny lot) going for $280,000 and the “wholesaler” indicated the ARV (After Repair Value) was $490K! That is insane! The highest and best use of the property is to completely demolish it, take it from a 1400 sqft footprint to a 2000 sqft footprint, and build a 2-story 4-plex, but for that to work (ensure a reasonably safe margin of risk vs profit over the next 7-18 months of permitting and construction in an uncertain market), you would need to buy the land at 150K or less. What’s more, think about it, 280K for a very tiny, 80-year-old building, and you CANNOT live in it!!!! While the rental market remains strong, I do not see rents justifying the purchase and rehab cost of the asset I am talking about and I am betting I will get another alert that the price has been reduced in a few days to a week, and that will tell me they are about to lose the contract they want to flip.
Miami Beach Brokers® Has Moved to eXp Realty!
As I indicated in my video on January 1st, 2023, I have executed my intention to join eXp Realty, a publicly traded international powerhouse in the Real Estate Industry. I am proud to have moved my brokerage (and painfully slowly onboarding those agents who wish to join me). More changes are coming. Miami Beach Brokers LLC will continue to operate as a business, it will just no longer continue to be a Real Estate Brokerage. ALL REAL ESTATE TRANSACTIONS ARE NOW “BROKERED BY EXP REALTY”. Here are a couple of posts from today on LinkedIn:
On the Miami Beach Brokers® Company Page:
Happy #Friday everyone! February was a busy month full of exciting changes (article forthcoming)! The biggest change was our move to eXp Realty. The Miami Beach Brokers® online presence is being changed to reflect this.
Moving to eXp Realty was an important decision in servicing our customers (it is an international company with over 87,000 agents) in a greater capacity. It was also an important step in what we believe is an evolution of the #internationaldevelopment of the real estate industry. Our society is increasingly #global and eXp Realty is a frontrunner in dominating the #globalrealestate market. Furthermore, a huge publicly traded company like eXp Realty is able to offer far more #opportunity for #training, #advancement, and #growth than a small #brokerage ever could. It was the right decision!
Please note that this only impacts #realestate transactions, which are now all Brokered by EXP Realty! Miami Beach Brokers® will continue to exist as a privately owned #business headed by Christopher J. Lazaro in brokering other types of services including private money lending, solar installations, data brokerage, lead generation, and other private opportunistic business activities.
#tgif
On My LinkedIn Page, I wrote:
As everyone knows by now, earlier this month i transitioned to eXp Realty. I thank everyone for the hundreds of messages congratulating me on this move.
Per below, I am updating the Miami Beach Brokers® presence on the Internet, a huge endeavor since I have created pages, directory listings, and the like in 1000+ locations over the last few years!
All #realestate transactions are now Brokered By EXP Realty.
Miami Beach Brokers® will continue to exist as a going concern in lead generation & services brokerage in various non-real-estate transactional spaces such as #networkmarketing, #solar, #informationtechnology#consulting, #privatelending, and other opportunistic ventures. The Company’s online presence will be re-vamped to reflect this as time and resources permit.
Have a great #weekend!
As we head into Spring, I wish everyone a fantastic March! This is one of the greatest months of the year to be living, working, and playing in Southeast Florida! Enjoy! Cheers!
