A report from the Commonwealth Fund and George Washington University warns that if enhanced premium tax credits expire at the end of 2025, states could lose $26.1 billion in federal health insurance subsidies in 2026, leading to significant economic disruptions. This would result in a $34 billion GDP loss, 286,000 job losses—mainly in healthcare—and a $2.1 billion decline in state and local tax revenue. States that have not expanded Medicaid would be particularly affected, facing nearly 70% of job losses and substantial revenue declines.
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