We are on the cusp of Autumn 2022 and markets around the world roil as interest rates move higher on a near-global scale (China, Japan, & Turkey are doing the opposite with horrific results), yet one thing remains true, more and more people will want to move to Florida. We are already at an estimated 1,000 people a day despite the higher interest rates, historically low housing inventory levels, and higher-than-average rents & home values. Autumn is only 10 days away. And once again, I found myself sitting at the Beach Bar in Sunny Isles Beach meeting yet another person from the West Coast of the United States, this time a game designer from Seattle, WA. Despite rising interest rates and other economic headwinds, there is still no shortage of interest in Southeast Florida Real Estate.
Many people might not even know it yet, but at some point, it will be either their heating bills or perhaps it will be their City/State income tax bills (we only pay Federal Income Tax in Florida) or it will be the harsh freezing cold typical of their geography… Winter Is Coming! Many more American citizens will be heading to Florida. It is inevitable.
This Fall & Winter will be especially difficult in Europe given the turmoil they are having over there with their natural gas problems & energy expenses.
They chose to mock the big orange meany rather than listen to him, but no one can deny that he did warn them Russia would hold its energy reserves over their heads and those idiots remained intent on building yet another dependency on Russia (the Nord Stream Pipeline). Is he Naustradamus, or did he just see what should have been obvious to anyone paying attention & playing the same game, Europe spent the last two decades “Going Green” = shutting down coal plants & nuclear reactors and buying more and more energy from a hostile regime!
Clearly, Russia was playing Chess while the European bureaucrats were failing miserably at Checkers! I would not be surprised to see a record number of Immigration Visas filed nor will I be surprised to see a colossal amount of foreign direct investment pouring into Southeast Florida (much of it for EB-5 or an investor’s visa) over the next six months. I may be an optimist, but I am also a realist and Europe’s problems are very far from over! Winter is Coming, and it will absolutely inspire those Europeans that are able to make some moves, investment or otherwise, towards warmer & greener pastures like those here in Florida!
I would also be remiss to not briefly mention the real estate catastrophe unfolding in China. If you have not heard or investigated much into the ridiculousness of what activities & practices constitute their “real estate market”, I encourage you to do so. They are on the brink of an epic real estate market implosion that will make the 2008-2010 mortgage crisis in the United States look like a Sunday picnic. However, the people live in a Communist country and given that fact, not many other than the most privileged amongst them are likely to find themselves basking in the Florida Sun anytime soon. Again, Winter Is Coming!
It is true that interest rates are topping 6% this weekend as I write this, and yes, we have seen not only a slowdown in residential purchases, and for the first time in a very long time, we are seeing price reductions on homes listed for sale. Sellers are getting a reality check as Buyers wait on the sidelines worrying about “catching the falling knife”. Regardless, I have little doubt that people will continue to move/flee to Florida from adverse conditions no matter what they might be, whether it is any or all of the aforementioned items or if the choice is rooted in political ideology, or if they are part of the many corporate enterprises relocating here. I fully expect MOST would-be Buyers waiting on the sidelines to be disappointed because I still do not expect any major real estate correction in Southeast Florida even though I also would enjoy the opportunity to buy real estate at 20-50% off current market prices. This is an unlikely & unrealistic scenario.
One thing I remember my father telling me long ago is that regardless of how high-interest rates rise, there will always be people who will need to buy a home (he bought his first home with an 18.5% mortgage!) and while things may often move very slowly, even arduously, the pendulum eventually does swing back towards more fluid & “better” times/market conditions. Florida, specifically South Florida, does have the advantage of being the only subtropic zone in the continental United States, the climate here has long been a beacon for those looking to escape the chill of Winter as long as I can remember.
While the trend has slowed, it is too powerful to stop even with the economic storm(s) looming from horizon to horizon (literally). Of the 300,000 or so Florida Real Estate Licensees there is a reason that some 100,000+ real estate agents live within the three counties of Southeast Florida: Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties; it is by far the most in-demand region in all of the Southeastern United States! Barring some black swan event or natural cataclysm, Southeast Florida will continue to represent a solid investment opportunity for decades to come!
I missed posting this here last weekend, but I do hope everyone had a wonderful Labor Day Weekend! The weather was gorgeous here on the Miami Beaches!
Also this month there have been a few other developments that I would like to share in this impromptu article I did not expect to be writing today.
New Business Cards (at last!)
The QR Code links to a service I employed and with a little effort, you can create a really nice page with all your info, the ability to set a meeting with you, social media, etc. —> https://miamibeachbrokers.vcardinfo.com/index
I also discovered LinkTree and started to create a page that organizes all of my business’s links. I am not yet finished, but I got a good start: https://linktr.ee/miamibeachbrokers
I have a new real estate market update in the works! I am also planning the 3rd Quarter Update (or Updates?…I’m getting requests for Broward & Palm Beach data & commentary). The jury is out. I am working on doing a Blog+Vlog format that can stay under 20 minutes and not require me to write hours of content. Basically, I can blog out my bullet points and the market data and then use those elements as the structure of my YouTube Vlog. More to come! Cheers!
